For many people, coffee is a daily habit rather than a health strategy. However, a new large-scale study published in Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases suggests that this habit may quietly shape how chronic diseases develop over time, from health to chronic disease, from one disease to several, and ultimately to mortality.
Coffee and health transitions: What the data showed
Using data from the UK Biobank, researchers followed more than 60,000 adults who developed at least one non-communicable disease during the study period. Over time, nearly 10,000 of them progressed to multimorbidity, defined as living with two or more major chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, type 2 diabetes, or chronic respiratory disease. The study did not look at coffee in isolation, but at how habitual intake related to different stages of disease accumulation. To do this, the researchers applied multi-state statistical models that allowed them to track transitions from being disease-free to a first diagnosis, from one disease to multiple diseases, and from multimorbidity to death. Participants were categorized according to how much coffee they typically drank, from none to more than five cups per day. Genetic data were also included to account for differences in how quickly individuals metabolize caffeine.
The results show a consistent pattern. Compared with people who did not drink coffee, those who consumed up to three cups per day had a lower risk of developing a first chronic disease. Among participants who already had one condition, moderate coffee consumption was also associated with a lower likelihood of progressing to multimorbidity. These associations remained after adjusting for a wide range of lifestyle and sociodemographic factors.
However, the pattern changed at higher intakes. Drinking more than five cups of coffee per day was associated with a higher risk of moving from a first chronic disease to multimorbidity, as well as a higher risk of death among individuals already living with multiple conditions. Importantly, these associations were not uniform across all participants. They were strongest among people genetically classified as slow caffeine metabolizers, suggesting that biological differences may influence how coffee affects long-term health trajectories.
What does this mean for everyday health?
This study suggests that coffee’s relationship with long-term health is not linear. Moderate consumption appears compatible with healthier aging trajectories, while very high intake may accelerate disease accumulation in some people, particularly those who metabolize caffeine more slowly. However, the findings do not imply that coffee prevents disease, nor that everyone should drink coffee. They do suggest that habitual moderation matters, and that genetic differences may partly explain why people respond differently to the same amount of coffee.
Thus, if you already enjoy coffee, this study offers a gentle reassurance: moderate intake fits comfortably within patterns associated with healthier aging. If you don’t drink coffee, it’s not evidence that you should start. In a world where dramatic health claims often make the headlines, this research reminds us that our daily habits can quietly shape the long view of our health.
Reference
Xue, Y., Jiang, W., Tang, Y., Niu, F., Liu, H., Yang, R., … & Li, S. (2025). Habitual coffee intake, genetic susceptibility and multimorbidity of non-communicable chronic diseases trajectory: a prospective study from UK biobank. Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases, 104288. https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2025.104288
Lecturer at the Sociology Department, University of Barcelona