The energy transition is not only a technical challenge. Governments also need public support for the policies that make it possible. A recent study by M. Krainz and colleagues at the University of Geneva, published in Nature Energy, examines which factors best predict citizens’ support for energy and climate policies after receiving information about their benefits and drawbacks.
The researchers conducted three studies across seven European countries. In the first, Swiss citizens evaluated energy policies already being discussed in Switzerland. These involved capturing CO₂ from the atmosphere to offset emissions from backup fossil fuel power plants, increasing electricity imports to improve grid flexibility, and promoting flexible electric vehicle charging and heat pump operation. Using statistical models, the researchers compared around 50 factors to identify which best predicted public support, rather than examining each separately.
The results suggest that people’s perceptions and emotional responses were more closely associated with support than their age, income or political preferences. Support was higher among participants who felt positively about a policy, experienced emotions such as hope and pride, believed it would benefit society and the environment, and considered it fair. Perceived impacts on personal well-being and finances were also relevant, as was the expectation that public acceptance would increase over time.
The researchers then tested their model against a 2024 Swiss referendum on renewable energy. It predicted a majority in favour, estimating 61.8 percent support compared with the actual 68.7 percent, broadly consistent with earlier opinion polls. To test whether these findings extended beyond energy policies, the researchers applied the model in six other European countries, evaluating support for different climate mitigation measures. It correctly identified 88 percent of supporters and non-supporters for sustainable diets, but only 65 percent for afforestation and reforestation (planting and restoring forests).
The strongest predictor was how positively or negatively someone felt about a policy, which is closely related to whether they support it. However, this does not explain how those feelings develop. For example, people may consider a policy fair because they already support it, rather than the reverse. The researchers acknowledge that their model identifies correlations rather than cause-and-effect relationships, highlighting the need to understand how people’s perceptions and emotional responses develop.
These findings could help policymakers identify which public concerns deserve particular attention when evaluating new energy measures. By considering their perceived social and environmental impacts, fairness and emotional responses, governments may be better equipped to design and communicate policies that reflect informed public preferences.
PhD in Energy Systems