The National Security Strategy of the USA signed by President Trump in November 2025 pulls no punches in its description of Europe. ‘Economic decline’, ‘cratering birthrates’ and ‘civilizational erasure’ are accompanied by ‘migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife’, the document reads.
A similar narrative is shared by anti-immigration parties like the Reform Party (UK), Alternative für Deutschland (Germany), Partij voor de Vrijheid (Netherlands), Freiheitliche Partei Österreich (Austria), Vox (Spain), Rassemblement national (France) and Fratelli d’Italia (Italy). Victor Orban’s Hungarian government has bluntly declared ‘there can be no question of population decline being compensated by migration.’
These views display a level of panic about migration that a significant section of the long-settled population also shares. The realities of the situation are less alarming. As of 1 January 2024, just 9.9 per cent of the EU population (44.7 million people) were born outside of the European Union. Moreover, the implication that policies are soft on migration is far from the truth. Most European countries (Spain is a partial exception) have implemented strict visa regimes, restrictions on migrants receiving welfare benefits, limits on family reunification and accelerated processes for the deportation of unwanted or irregular migrants. Frontex, through projects like EU4BorderSecurity, have implemented robust border controls and funded states in North Africa and the Levant to prevent migration to Europe. These efforts have met with some success and are often accompanied by the cruel treatment of migrants held in camps and detention centres.
To seek to diminish the crisis of migration would be an error. There are real issues at stake. Violent conflicts in many places have triggered very large numbers of displaced people. There are stark demographic discrepancies between West Africa and southern Europe. International climate migration has barely begun, but it is rather like a coiled spring, ready to be unleashed as the climate crisis deepens. Also important is that anti-immigrant sentiment in much of Europe is a powerful and increasingly organized force.
For all these reasons, we have to face International Migrants Day, December 18, in a sombre mood. We know that migrants to Europe fill vital positions in the economy. They are sources of innovation and entrepreneurial energy. They are often good neighbours, colleagues, partners and friends. They provide cultural enrichment in everything from language, music, dance, food, literature and art. Above all, we share a common humanity with those whose lives or livelihoods are threatened. Never has solidarity with migrants been so challenged, and never has it been so necessary.
Professor Emeritus in Development Studies at the University of Oxford. He has written extensively on migration. His books include The new helots: migrants in the international division of labour (1987, rev. 2023), Global diasporas: an introduction (1997, rev. 2022), Migration and its enemies (2006) and Migration: the movement of humankind from prehistory to the present (2019).